A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends

The Pacific Flyway Shorebird Survey is a coordinated multi-partner research and monitoring program led by Point Blue Conservation Science designed to guide the management and conservation of wintering shorebirds in the Pacific Flyway, a migration corridor stretching from Alaska to Chile. The first phase of the effort has focused on California's Central Valley, San Francisco Bay Area, and the coastal regions of California and northern Baja California, Mexico. These regions provide critical habitat for large populations of migrating and wintering shorebirds in the Pacific Flyway.

San Francisco Bay Area Upland Habitat Goals

The Upland Habitat Goals project is a science-based process using existing data supplemented by expert opinion to identify a Conservation Lands Network for biodiversity preservation to inform conservation investments. The final report recommends the types, amounts and distribution of habitats, linkages, compatible uses and the ecological processes needed to sustain diversity. Other products include an online decision support tool and access to a GIS database.

Incorporating the Geography of Climate Change into Conservation Planning

This project analyzes downscaled climate model data to assess the geography of climate change at scales relevant to actual conservation actions. This work analyzes the California Essential Habitat Connectivity products to determine which protected lands are most vulnerable and which of the proposed corridors would partially mitigate climate change threats.

Impacts of Climate Change on Ecology and Habitats of Waterbirds in the Central Valley

This project will develop landscape change scenarios based upon water availability and precipitation and temperature patterns projected from downscaled models and investigate impacts of these changes on habitats and ecology of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds in the Central Valley. The goal of this work is to work with the Central Valley Joint Venture to adapt the scenario modeling project results and modeling tool so they can be used to incorporate climate, urbanization, and water supply management impacts on waterbird habitats into its conservation planning.

Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change

This project uses species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under climate change scenarios for rare plants. The project models the current distribution of the species, uses these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculates current and future range size, calculates the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assesses where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution.

Maximizing evolutionary potential under climate change in southern California protected areas

The project transfers a previously developed prioritization framework that combines intraspecific genetic and morphological variation with traditionally used indices of biodiversity, and test its general utility for conservation prioritization. This project will integrate existing data on intraspecific variation of multiple species in the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreational Area with climate data and space-borne measurements of the environment to identify areas with high intraspecific variation.

Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands

Climate change and rangeland scientists, ranchers, and land managers have worked together to develop six scenarios to address a primary management question: How can we maintain viable ranchland and their ecosystem services in light of future integrated threats? The scenarios represent alternative futures of climate/land use/hydrological change for the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition focus area (the Central Valley, surrounding foothills, and most of the southern Inner Coast Range of California).

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada Birds

This project assesses vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy will provide recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.

Decision support for climate change adaptation and fire management strategies for at risk species in southern California

This project models how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems in Southern California. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change. Products include maps of habitat suitability under current and future conditions, population models and dynamic bioclimate envelopes, recommendations on management option, and an adaptive management framework for structured decision making.

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